Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5107
R2 5085
R1 5061
Avg 5039
S1 5015
S2 4993
S3 4969

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5083     Trgt 2
H5 5072     Trgt 1
H4 5062     Long breakout
H3 5049     Go Short
H2 5045
H1 5041
L1 5032
L2 5028
L3 5024     Long
L4 5011     Short Breakout
L5 5001     Trgt 1
L6 4990     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9765
R2 9710
R1 9636
Avg 9581
S1 9507
S2 9452
S3 9378

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9692     Trgt 2
H5 9663     Trgt 1
H4 9633     Long breakout
H3 9598     Go Short
H2 9586
H1 9574
L1 9551
L2 9539
L3 9527     Long
L4 9492     Short Breakout
L5 9462     Trgt 1
L6 9433     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(19-09-2011)

It was clearly told that Indian markets are not prepared for any side decisive moves and will prepare for next moves today. Nifty traded whole day between 5024-5060 and could not test mentioned ranges in previous outlooks today.

Minor selling(5050-5060) seen at higher levels and minor support also seen at lower levels between 5024-5030 today.

Indian markets out performed whole day global markets and now trading 1.00% down while US futures is more than 165 points down and European markets are also trading 2% to 3% down as well as all other Asian markets closed 1% to 2.75% down.

Both intraday selling patterns and buying formations but Indian markets out performed global markets today therefore today trading range(5024-5060) break out will be next moves confirmations and should be watched first in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(19-09-2011)

Selling formations seen between 5050-5060 today.

Post-open Outlook-2(19-09-2011)

Dow's Futures is trading more than 140 points down and European markets Futures are also .95% to 1:50% down today. All Asian markets are .75% to 2.10% down therefore sentiment is dampened today morning and negative zone trading is being seen after gap down opening today but Indian markets are out performing Global markets and now 60% down.

As good selling at higher levels above 5100 and good buying at lower levels also below 5000 therefore market require complete prepartion for next decisive moves. Coming hours intraday charts formations will give next moves first indication and and conclusions will be updated in the Blog.

Following levels break out will also give next moves indications therefore should be watched also;-

1- 5030-5075 for 1st indication.
2- 4969-5130 for confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(19-09-2011)

Selling and higher levels between 5100-5130 and buying at lower levels between 4969-5000 in two previous sessions. Next moves preparation range is 5000-5100 and Nifty will trade between this range today and prepare for next moves. Follow up buying/selling will decide that Nifty will break 5130 or 4969 for next decisive trend.

Let market prepare for next moves then will be updated in the Blog according to intraday charts formations.

NIFTY-Sep F&O-1st Shorting of 16-09-2011-Covering

NIFTY Sep F & O(Shorted on 16-09-2011)-Cover and book profit immediately-CMP- 5041

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 19-09-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(16-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5100-5130
2- Whole day trading between 5070-5139

Conclusions

Good selling at higher levels between 5100-5130 and today selling is at lower levels of previous resistance range of 5120-5169 and 5120-5220. Today selling has strengthened previous resistance ranges and confirmed further down moves.

More down moves will be seen in the coming sessions and next support range(4969-5000) testing is possible.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-Sep-2011

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Green closing.
2- Red Candle.
3- Higher levels selling patterns in most Indices.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-Sep-2011): 18.36

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1287
BSE DECLINES : 1531
NSE ADVANCES : 627
NSE DECLINES : 797

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +68850(+1.24%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +1464300(+21.46%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +561250(+10.38%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +571900(+15.76%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Sep)- +839900(+14.49%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Sep)- +608700(+35.08%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,084.25(+8.55 Points & +0.17%)
Sensex- closed at 16,933.83(+57.29 Points & +0.34% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,346.45(+6.05 Points & +0.08%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,213.02(-0.74 Points & -0.01%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-Sep-2011 3675.29 3280.13 395.16

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-Sep-2011 1165.58 1126.25 39.33

NIFTY-Sep F&O-1st Selling of 16-09-2011-Trade

NIFTY(Sep Fut-Sell-Positional)SL-5126-TGT-5036-CMP-5088

NIFTY(Sep Put Option-Buy-Positional)SL-5126-TGT-5036-S.P.FOR Put-5000,5100(Sep Fut-Rates
for all Options)-CMP-5088

Pre-Closing Outlook(16-09-2011)

Nifty is trading within mentioned range( 5095-5130) after credit policy and today intraday patterns are showing selling therefore weakness expected in the coming session.

Volatile Market after RBI Credit Policy

Volatile Market was told in following lines in Mid-session Outlook  today before RBI Credit Policy today and voltality is clear in following today intraday chart of after credit policy:-

Volatile moves may be seen after credit policy announcement therefore cautious approach is required and sustaing beyond 5095-5130 will be next moves confirmation after credit policy announcement at 12:00 noon today.

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Nifty could not sustained above 5120 and also moved below 5095 also. 25 Basis points rates increase and it is on expected lines also therefore if Nifty sustains below 5095 today then it will be negative reaction confirmation.

Sustaing beyond 5095 will be market reaction confirmation on credit policy and should be watched first today for next trend confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(16-09-2011)

Only next resistance range(5120-5220) testing possibility was told in all the outlooks which were updated for today market and Nifty hovered around 5120 in first two hours today. It was also told again and again that 5120-5169 is next resistance and Nifty slipped below 5120 sharply after first 2 hours trading above it.

Completely news(strong global markets,petroleum rates hike and RBI Credit policy) based market today and technical positions reverses sharply in such markets also. Finally sustaining beyond 5120 will be next moves strong indication and will decide next trend also therefore this level should be watched first for next moves confirmation.

Volatile moves may be seen after credit policy announcement therefore cautious approach is required and sustaing beyond 5095-5130 will be next moves confirmation after credit policy announcement at 12:00 noon today..

Long Term Trend Deciding 27 Sessions Range(4720-5229)

Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty-EOD Chart(15-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Falling trendline resistance at the top of 27 sesions range.
2- 10 Months Bearish market
3- 94 Points Gap  on 05-08-2011
4- 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229
5- Strong resistance range is 5120-5220 within 27 days range

Conclusions

All trends are down and Indian markets are slipping for the last 10 months. Nifty opened 94 points gap down on 05-08-2011 and since then 27 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229.

Markets always require completion consolidation for any rally after such big fall. Big rally started in March 2009 after lower level 5 monthe range bound consolidations. As range bound markets signals are emerging between 4720-5229 therefore this range break out will decide that 10 months long long term correction is over or not.Investment decisions,long term positions and Portfolio management should be done according to break out of mentioned range.


Nifty will first trade between strong resistance range is 5120-5220 after positive opening today. Nifty failed to cross this range in previous after selling between 5120-5169 therefore it will be next resistance range.

Sustaining beyond 5120-5169 will be next moves strong indication therefore should be watched first  after gap up opening today.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 16-09-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(15-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 4969-5000
2- Whole day trading between 4969-5089.
3- Up moves between 5000-5055 without force.
4- Last half hour sharp forceful break out above 5055.

Conclusions

Long term and Intermediate term trends are down and short term trend is up. Highly volatile markets in first sessions and Nifty got support between 4969-5000. As without force up moves started after opening of European markets between 5000-5055 therefore down moves was also a possibility but on the contrary last half hour sharp forceful break out seen above 5055.

Nifty closed at the top of the day and sentiment turned strong also therefore next resistance range(5120-5169) testing may be seen if Asian markets remains completely strong tomorrow morning because Petrol Price hike news after today market and Indian markets will firstly react on that tomorrow.

Technically on going up moves continuation possibility is alive but Indian markets will react on Petrol Price hike and Credit policy tomorrow as well as without force upmoves between 5000-5055 also.

Sustaining above 5055 will be ongoing upmoves confirmation and should be watched first.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 15-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 15-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 15-Sep-2011 1978.63 1842.08 136.55

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 15-Sep-2011 795.5 791.1 4.4

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(15-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the sectors closed in Green except CG.
2- Bullish Hammer Candle.
3- Strong recovery from Intraday lower levels.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.13
Nifty P/E Ratio(15-Sep-2011): 18.33

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1514
BSE DECLINES : 1281
NSE ADVANCES : 818
NSE DECLINES : 604

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Sep)- -83900(-2.20%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Sep)- +307650(+4.40%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +180050(+3.30%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +1046350(+16.93%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +334700(+6.09%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- +644850(+21.64%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,075.70(+63.15 Points & +1.26%)
Sensex- closed at 16,876.54(+166.94 Points & +1.000% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,340.40(+77.65 Points & +1.07%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,213.76(+18.36 Points & +0.26%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5245
R2 5168
R1 5121
Avg 5044
S1 4997
S2 4920
S3 4873

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5201     Trgt 2
H5 5172     Trgt 1
H4 5143     Long breakout
H3 5109     Go Short
H2 5097
H1 5086
L1 5063
L2 5052
L3 5040     Long
L4 5006     Short Breakout
L5 4977     Trgt 1
L6 4948     Trgt 2