Mid-Session-2(31-12-2010)

Nifty is trading above 6100 since morning today and also crossed resistance of 6120. Rally is very much on to test last tesistance of rally(6250-6320). Risky players may may ride on running horse and safe players may wait slowing down or stopping of horse(minor intraday cotrrection) for riding.

Mid-Session(31-12-2010)

Market heated immediately after opening today and will be safer to buy after some intraday correction

Pre-Open Market Outlook(31-12-2010)

Following lines were told yesterday:-

"6100 expected within 2/3 sessions"

Nifty traded most of the time within 6070-6085 and tested 6100 in last half hour yesterday as well as closed above 6100 but Nifty Jan Fut did not responded this last half hour sharp surge. Although Nifty Jan Fut moved up in last hour but completely under performed Nifty spot yesterday. Mentioned surge was seen in resistance range(6080-6100) and Nifty Jan Fut intraday charts of yesterday are indicating selling signals also therefore more consolidation required within 6080-6120 for fresh up moves. As most of the pivotal stocks intraday charts of yesterday are suggesting buying formations therefore more up moves are expected after some more consolidation today.

As more consolidation is fresh rally demand therefore it will be seen first within 6080-6120 today and fresh rally above 6100 expected in next Session,Week,Month & Year.

Trading Levels for 31-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 31-12-10

R3 6162
R2 6134
R1 6118
AVG 6090
S1 6074
S2 6046
S3 6030  

Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 31-12-10

R3 6180
R2 6160
R1 6145
AVG 6125
S1 6110
S2 6090
S3 6075
 
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 31-12-10

R3 11842
R2 11790
R1 11735
AVG 11683
S1 11628
S2 11576
S3 11521

Mid-Session Outlook(30-12-2010)

Market slipped from higher levels on expected therefore following lines were told in Pre-Open Outlook:-

1- Voltality and little profit booking at higher levels may be seen

2- Fresh long positions should be created after completion of intraday corrections

Sentiment was heated today morning therefore cooling down was consolidation requirement and it is being happened. Intraday charts not showing distribution formation despite Nifty intraday trading low formation. Fresh consolidation expected and its signals are being seen also. As market has to prepare to cross next resistance(6080-6120) therefore trading near its lower band and fresh up moves are expected after 1/2 sessions fresh consolidations.

Rally after Correction Completion

Pre-Open Market Outlook(30-12-2010)

Intermediate term correction which begun from Deepawali Muhurrat session finished yesterday after 27 days range bound moves between 5690-6069. Although Nifty could not closed above range but last 2 sessions intraday consolidations and up moves patterns are suggesting that Nifty will sustain finally above 6069 and fresh rally will be seen now to test follwing resistances:-

1- 6080-6120
2- 6180-6195
3- 6250-6320(strong resistance)

As 27 sessions range bound move is being broken out therefore decisive rally and above mentioned 3rd resistance testing possibility can not be ruled out.

All trends are up now and 5th impulsive sub wave of wave 3 is confirmed yesterday and its targets are much above all time high but its calculations will be disclosed after crossing crucial resistances. Mentioned Waves structutes of Wave 3 is clearly shown in following EOD chart:-

1- Waves structutes of Wave 3 Chart:-

 

(Just click on chart for enlarged view)

Sentiment will be heated today morning and Nifty has to cross immediate resistance range(6080-6120) for any fresh rally therefore consolidation requires within mentioned range. Voltality and little profit booking at higher levels may be seen but finally fresh rally above 6100 expected within 2/3 sessions. Fresh long positions should be created after completion of intraday corrections.

Today Green/Red/flat closing can not be guaranteed but fresh rally above 6100 expected within 2/3 sessions.

Trading Levels for 30-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 30-12-10

R3 6149
R2 6108
R1 6084
AVG 6043
S1 6019
S2 5978
S3 5954

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 30-12-10

R3 6149
R2 6111
R1 6090
AVG 6052
S1 6031
S2 5993
S3 5972

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 30-12-10

R3 11876
R2 11758
R1 11691
AVG 11573
S1 11506
S2 11388
S3 11321

Mid-Session Outlook-2(29-12-2010)

Following lines were told for today market:-

"As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for upmoves and sustaining above 6040 will be confirmation of next rally. Expected that rally will begin today and nifty will cross as well as sustain above 6040 now. Green closing after positive opening expected today"

Nifty is trading above 6040 with intraday consolidation patterns today therefore it is confirming correction completion within 27 sessions range bound moves and fresh rally as well.

Mid-Session Outlook(29-12-2010)

As Indian markets are trading within resistance ranges therefore under performing Asian markets. Intraday patterns are suggesting consolidations at this moment and expected that resistances will be cleared and fresh upmoves will be seen now after some more buying today and tomorrow.

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 28-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(BOUGHT ON 28-12-2010)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6033(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER NOW)

Rally above 6000 Expected

Pre-Open Market Outlook(29-12-2010)

Nifty is hovering around 5980-6040 for the last 6 sessions and it has been seen that Nifty traded more than 200 points after breaking out of this range 6 times previously therefore minimum such moves should be expected after its break out.  Meaning on mentioned range break out is as follows:-

1- Breaking down and sustaining below 5980 will mean continuation of correction to test those lower support and fibonacci retracement levels which has already been posted in last 3 sessions outlooks.

2-Breaking out and firstly sustaining above 6040 and then sustaining above will mean correction completion confirmation to test those resistances which have already been posted in last 3 sessions outlooks.

1-6 Times Trend Decider Range- 5980-6040 chart:-

                         (Just click on chart for enlarged view)

Intraday charts showed consolidation patterns immediately after opening yesterday therefore following lines were told after 1st hour yesterday in Mid-session outlook:-

"intraday charts of first hour showed consolidation patterns. Up moves will be considered after sustaining above 6000 today"

Although Nifty could not sustain above 6000 yesterday but intraday charts of yesterday are suggesting whole day consolidation and expected that Nifty will cross and sustain above 6000 today. As good consolidation therefore yesterday intraday range(5988-6005) will proove strong support in the coming sessions.

1- Intaday Buying Patterns on 28-12-2010 chart:-

                              (Just click on chart for enlarged view)

Following technical indicators are also signalling upmoves:-

1- All the short term EMA(8,21,55,200) are above longer term EMA.
2- MACD line is above Average line and both are rising.
3- ROC & RSI- Both are in positive zone.
4- Short term indicators have cooled down in overbought zone.

As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for upmoves and sustaining above 6040 will be confirmation of next rally. Expected that rally will begin today and nifty will cross as well as sustain above 6040 now. Green closing after positive opening expected today.

Trading Levels for 29-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 29-12-10

R3 6039
R2 6025
R1 6010
AVG 5996
S1 5981 
S2 5967
S3 5952 

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 29-12-10

R3 6058
R2 6042 
R1 6028 
AVG 6012
S1 5998
S2 5982
S3 5968

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 29-12-10

R3 11586 
R2 11548 
R1 11506
AVG 11468
S1 11426
S2 11388
S3 11346

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 28-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5987-TGT-6074-CMP-6014

NIFTY(DEC CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-5987-TGT-6074 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6014

Mid-Session Outlook(28-12-2010)

Indian markets out performing global markets today morning and intraday charts of first hour showed consolidation patterns. Up moves will be considered after sustaining above 6000 today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(28-12-2010)

Indian markets moved up last Friday despite 3 previous sessions selling patterns( 5958-6024) on following bullish news:-

"Finance ministry fresh missive to the labour ministry for investment a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund in stock markets"

As mentioned up move was news based after ignoring selling formations therefore following lines were told for yesterday:-

"As last Friday up move was on the back of positive news therefore sustaining above the top(6069) of last 25 sessions is must for confirmation of break out"

As doubt was shown and same was seen yesterday. Indian markets slipped and closed within last week 3 selling sessions range at 5998 and last 26 sessions range bound move of 5690-6069 is still maintained. Selling patterns within 6020-6045 yesterday and selling was already seen in the last week therefore next trend confirmation first range is 5940-6045. Until fresh consolidation will not happen till then firstly 6045 and then 6069 will not cross to confirm decisive up trend. As selling patterns exists therefore down moves will be faster and sustaining above the top(6069) of last 26 sessions is must for confirmation of break out and up move"

Long term and short term trends are up and intermediate term is sideways for the last 26 sessions. As selling therefore firstly down move within last 5 sessions range(5940-60450) expected and also whole day trading within this range will be seen today. Although market is not sustaining beyond previous short term ranges but breaking out/down daily. As moved up was seen after breaking down last Friday and moved down after breaking out yesterday therefore technical positions changes sharply in such intraday volatile moves. Until market does not sustain beyond any crucial levels till then short term views within mentioned ranges should be maintained. Follwing ranges and levels should be watched for next immediate confirmations:-

1- For up move- Firstly closing above 6015 and then sustaining above 6069.
2- For up move- First break out range is 5940-6045
3- For down move- 1st break down range is 5960-6045
4- For down move- 2nd support at- 5870
5- For down move- 3rd support at- 5820
6- For down move- 4th support at- 5730
7- For down move- 5th support at- 5690

Firstly down move expected and then next moves will be decided according to break out/down and intraday charts formations.

As I have been busy therefore could not post Weekly of this week but above mentioned 7 levels and ranges will give direction in whole week.

Trading Levels for 28-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 28-12-10

R3 6087
R2 6066
R1 6032
AVG 6011
S1 5977
S2 5956
S3 5922

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10

R3 6104
R2 6083
R1 6047
AVG 6026
S1 5990
S2 5969
S3 5933

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10

R3 11670
R2 11620
R1 11550
AVG 11500
S1 11430
S2 11380
S3 11310  

Market Outlook(27-12-2010)

Nifty traded most of the time within 5955-6024 in last week. Selling seen in 3 days and Indian markets surged sharp last Friday after following news in media and Economic times website:-

News at 11:40am on 24-12-2010 economictimes.com:-"The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets"

Link of the news is as follows:-

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/finance-ministry-again-asks-labour-ministry-to-invest-part-of-epf-in-markets/articleshow/7153801.cms

As 3 days selling therefore Nifty firstly slipped,got support below 27% retracement level,almost tested and closed near the top of the week. As last Friday up move was on the back of positive news therefore sustaining above the top(6069) of last 25 sessions is must for confirmation of break out and intermediate term trend turning upward. Mentioned last Friday news is strong and its coming into being will mean strong rally in Indian markets after generation of huge investible funds. Break out will mean decisive strong rally toward all time high after clearing following reistances:-

1- 6040-6070
2- 6080-6120
3- 6180-6195
4- 6250-6320(strong resistance)

Trading Levels for 27-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 27-12-10

R3 6116
R2 6066
R1 6039
AVG 5989
S1 5962
S2 5912
S3 5885

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10

R3 6138
R2 6089
R1 6063
AVG 6014
S1 5988
S2 5939
S3 5913

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10

R3 11748
R2 11656
R1 11595
AVG 11503
S1 11442
S2 11350
S3 11289

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (27 Dec to 31 Dec 2010)

R3 6181
R2 6102
R1 6057
AVG 5978
S1 5933
S2 5854
S3 5809

Rs 5 lakh crore Corpus Investment in Stock Markets News triggered Sharp Rally Today

The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.

Sharp surge in Indian markets was due to above news today

Full news with link of this news is posted below.

Finance Ministry again asks labour ministry to invest part of EPF in markets

24 Dec, 2010, 11.40AM IST, Amiti Sen,ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.

In a recent letter, North Block has categorically ruled out providing any guarantee on returns on such investments, but said safeguards could be built to minimise risks and maximise gains for subscribers.

“The finance ministry’s refusal to guarantee returns continues to worry us, but we are willing to look at the suggestions made,” a labour ministry official told ET. The official did not reveal the details of the investment pattern suggested by North Block.

The finance ministry had earlier proposed that the EPF organisation could set aside 15% of funds for investments in the stock market and need not seek a nod from the Central Board of Trustees, or CBT, the policymaking body of the employees’ provident fund organisation, or EPFO.

The labour ministry is, however, clear that it cannot decide on the issue unilaterally, sidestepping the Central Board of Trustees. The EPFO, which manages the provident fund savings of approximately 4.7 crore organised sector workers, has steadfastly declined to invest provident fund accumulations in equities.

Following a decision by the trustees, Labour Secretary PC Chaturvedi had written to the finance ministry that it would be willing to do so, if the finance ministry guaranteed safety of investments and assured some minimum return on such investments. “We will place the suggestions made by the finance ministry before the CBT, which will take a final call on the matter,” the official said.

The EPFO has been giving 8.5% return on funds annually since 2005-06, which rose to 9.5% this year after it disbursed some unaccounted money in the fund. The fund has a corpus of Rs 3 lakh crore, and private trustees, which follow the fund’s investment pattern, have another Rs 2 lakh crore.

The finance ministry has argued investing a portion of the Rs 5 lakh crore EPF corpus in stocks would help the fund generate higher returns than the government-backed securities that the fund currently invests in. North Block had pointed out that the new pension scheme, or NPS, which invested part of the money in stock markets, earned a much higher 14.5% return last year.

The EPFO has reasoned that it cannot invest in equities because it is required to generate and credit income to account balances every year.

The labour ministry also argued that both schemes cannot be compared as NPS keeps money till retirement while employees are allowed to withdraw money from provident fund for various purposes like education, marriage, etc.
“These are real payouts we have to make. Roughly about Rs 20,000 crore is paid out every year to almost 60-80 lakh people,” the official said.

Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research does not buy the logic. “It is more risky not to invest in equities because returns on government-backed securities could go down to very low levels and it would be more difficult for the EPFO to explain a lower, say a 5.5%, return,” he said. 

Source:- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/finance-ministry-again-asks-labour-ministry-to-invest-part-of-epf-in-markets/articleshow/7153801.cms

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED ON 23-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY(WE MAY SHORT AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)-CMP-6010

Pre-Open Market Outlook(24-12-2010)

Long term and short term trends are up. Intermediate term trend is side ways for the last 24 sessions within 5690-6069. Nifty is trading near the top of range for the last 3 days within 5958-6024. Crossing of 6024 will mean begining of fresh rally towards all time high after completion of intermediate term correction and drifting below 5958 will mean continuation of 24 sessions range bound corrective markets.

1- 24 Sessions EOD Chart:-

Last 3 sessions range bound market(5958-6024) break out will decide next big moves of Indian markets and only intraday charts formations of last 3 days will decide side of market.

2- 3 Days Intraday Chart:-

As per my view last 3 sessions intraday charts are suggesting selling formations and breaking down expected to test following fibonacci retracement levels:-

23.6%- 5979
27.0%- 5966
38.2%- 5924
50.0%- 5880
61.8%- 5834
70.7%- 5801
76.4%- 5779
88.6%- 5733

Opening will depend on Global cues but finally begining of down move expected to test above mentioned levels.

Trading Levels for 24-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 24-12-10

R3 6043
R2 6024
R1 6002
AVG 5983
S1 5961
S2 5942
S3 5920

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10

R3 6042
R2 6027
R1 6011
AVG 5996
S1 5980
S2 5965
S3 5949

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10

R3 11682
R2 11625
R1 11566
AVG 11509
S1 11450
S2 11393
S3 11334  

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-5995
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5995

Mid-Session Outlook-2(23-12-2010)

Narrow range market with intraday consolidation indications in Indices and many Pivotals stocks therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be kept in mind for next immediate moves confirmations. As last 3 sessions intraday patterns showed selling also therefore first indication will be dran from today range break out and next bigger move confirmation will come from yesterday wider range break out(5958-6023)

Mid-Session Outlook(23-12-2010)

Completely narrow range market today and Intraday support seems at lower levels also therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be watched for next immediate moves confirmations. Although confirmation required but Nifty intraday chart is indicating Inverse Head & Shoulder(Bullish) formation today.

NIFTY-DEC FUT-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-COVERING

NIFTY DEC F & O(STBT-SHORTED ON 22-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5991

Fresh Down Move Triggered

Pre-Open Market Outlook(23-12-2010)


Indian maekets closed positive on 21-12-2010 but I did not posted bullish views but projected bearish views in following words yesterday:-

1- intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions
2-  until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only.

I told for distribution on 21-12-2010 and Nifty dipped below its lowest within half hour forceful down move yesterday. Bearish views were given amid bullish global sentiments because intraday charts were suggesting weakness.

Last 3 days intraday charts analysis:-

Half Hour Down Move of 22-12-2010 nullified following intraday up moves:-

1- 4 hours move of 22-12-2010 nullified
2- Whole day move of 21-12-2010 nullified
3- 2 hours higher band move of 20-12-2010 nullified

As intraday selling therefore mentioned up moves neutralised within half hour down moves.

1- 3 days intraday chart:-

Nifty traded with intraday genuine selling patterns within 6004-6023 yesterday and previous session intraday selling has also been shown above. Strong resistance was already at 6015 and it has  strenghtened yesterday after genuine selling surrounding it therefore 10th Dec started upmove terminated and Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5690-6069. Double top and double bottom at the both sides of this range and fresh consolidation/distribution in the coming weeks will decide the side of break out. Let market prepare then break out side will be decied accordingly.

Following supports testing expected now:-

1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775

Yesterday begun weakness will be seen today and in the coming sessions.

Trading Levels for 23-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 23-12-10

R3 6084.33
R2 6053.67
R1 6019.33
AVG 5988.67
S1 5954.33
S2 5923.67
S3 5889.33

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10

R3 6102.33
R2 6072.67
R1 6036.33
AVG 6006.67
S1 5970.33
S2 5940.67
S3 5904.33

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10

R3 11887.67
R2 11783.33
R1 11643.67
AVG 11539.33
S1 11399.67
S2 11295.33
S3 11155.67

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-6000
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6000

Post-Open Outlook(22-12-2010)

Nifty trading above 6015 after Asian markets led positive cues today morning. If Nifty sustains above 6015 today then it will be rally confirmation therefore should be watched for trend confirmations.

Trading Levels for 22-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 22-12-10

R3 6065
R2 6036
R1 6018
AVG 5989
S1 5971
S2 5942
S3 5924

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10

R3 6082
R2 6052
R1 6031
AVG 6001
S1 5980
S2 5950
S3 5929

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10

R3 11967
R2 11790
R1 11683
AVG 11506
S1 11399
S2 11222
S3 11115

Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-12-2010)

Strong Asian markets triggered break out(5950-5985) and Nifty traded most of the time and closed above it yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions therefore until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only. As very short term moves remain news generated sentiments also therefore mentioned confirmation is required because yesterday up move are not supported by intraday consolidation patterns.

All the global markets closed with good gains yesterday and US markets are also trading 1/2% up at this moment therefore bullish sentiment is maintained and Nifty will hover around 6000 today in the begining. 5985-6015 is next move confirmation range. Nifty above 6015 will mean fresh rally after correction completion and below 5985 will mean maintaining of range bound markets.

Let market open then will be informed accordingly as was done in Post-open outlook within first half hour yesterday.

Post-Open Outlook(21-12-2010)

Posiitive market today after strong Asian cues today morning. Now trading in the upper band(5950-5985) of yesterday range. As selling was seen in this range therefore fresh consolidation is required to cross it and follow up selling within mentioned range will mean begining of very short term down moves.

Sustaining beyond or froceful break out of 5950-5985 will give next very short term move confirmations.

Trading Levels for 21-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6073
R2 6029
R1 5988
AVG 5944
S1 5903
S2 5859
S3 5818

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10

R3 6106
R2 6053
R1 6006
AVG 5953
S1 5906
S2 5853
S3 5806

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10

R3 11590
R2 11517
R1 11406
AVG 11333
S1 11222
S2 11149
S3 11038

Indian Stock Markets Detailed Research for coming weeks/months

Pre-Open Market Outlook(21-12-2010)

Only 16 points trend decider trading range(5940-5956) was given in weekly,Nifty could not broke out mentioned small range in 84 points volatile market and closed flat exactly within it at 5947 yesterday. Following lines were also told yesterday and being repeated today for deciding that big move which is expected after sustaining beyond 5940-5956:-

1- Indian markets are riped for up moves.

2- until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.

3- complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940

As Indian markets were riped for up moves therefore up moves were seen immediate after opening yesterday despite weaker global cues. Down moves were not seen in the begining because complete selling was required and were seen after complete selling at higher levels yesterday.

Following lines were told in Mid-session outlook yesterday and repeating today:-

"Intraday charts are suggesting selling at higher levels but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940"

Dissection of intraday patterns of last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) for deciding next moves and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves:-

1- 5855-5890(intraday buying on 16-12-2010)
2- 5940-5956(intraday selling on 16-12-2010)
3- 5960-5985(intraday selling on 20-12-2010)

Indian markets are flat,not trending and side ways points have already been discussed in weekly and last 2 sessions intraday patterns are also showing same patterns through lower level buying and higher level selling.

Markets takes its own time for taking positions and preperations and same is being happened for the last 21 sessions. Multiple supports at lower levels and multiple resistances at higher levels also. Indian markets will prepare for next moves and crossing of next supports/resistances will decide next direction. Following supports and resistances of last 21 sessions should be kept in mind for finding next move target. Base range is 5940-5956 and next moves will be decided from sustaining sustaining beyond:-

Sustaining below 5940 will mean testing of following supports:-

1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775

Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385.

Sustaining above 5956 will mean testing of following Resistances:-

1- 5960-5985
2- 5970-6015
3- 6040-6070

Sustaining above 6070 will mean testing of follwong next resistances:-

4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320(strong resistance)

Sustaing above 6320 will mean continuation of `Wave 3 towards new highs of Indian markets. Correction is on and only its completion has to be decided. Let market start to sustain above or below mentioned levels and accoring to that correction completion will be decided.

Firstly get confirmation from breaking out of 5940-5956 but it is small 16 points range and next big move will be cooked within last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves.

Indian markets will move according to above mentioned levels in the coming weeks/months therefore should be kept in mind.

Mid-Session Outlook(20-12-2010)

Following range was given for trend confirmation and nifty is hovering around it since opening today:-

"Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"

Nifty opened and traded firstly below 5940 but could not sustained and recovered after 2 hours and trading above 5956. Intraday charts are suggesting selling patterns but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940.

Just watch mentioned range tomorrow and it will be safer to trade according to sustaining above or below 5940-5956.

Post-Open Outlook(20-12-2010)

It was told in weekly for last 40 minutes intraday trading of previous thursday:-

1- "last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications"
2- "Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"

Nifty opened and trading weak below 5940 after negative news from Asian markets and specially from Shanghai markets. As today weakness is news based therefore fresh selling patterns are must for sustaining below 5940. Although short covering(selling) indication seen in last 40 minutes of previous Thursday but big down moves can not be projected from only 40 minutes intraday moves and complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940 and that will be decided after minimum 3/4 hours trading today. Let market prepare then will be decided firstly from intraday patterns and finally from sustaining beyond mentioned range.

16 Points Range(5940-5956) Break Out is Next Trend Decider

Weekly Analysis- 20-12-2010 to 24-12-2010

Long term and short term are up. Intermediate term trend(5932) is sideways for the last 20 sessions. Following points are also suggesting that Indian markets are flat and not trending:-

1- Nifty is at the middle of Bollinger Band.
2- 8,21 and 55 Day EMA are moving flat within 5910-5945.
3- Nifty trading a little below the middle point of last 75 sessions.

Last 3 sessions are range bound within 5855-5956 and its break out will give following moves:-

1- Sustaining above 5956 will mean immediate testing of next strong resistance 5970-6015. Sustaing above 6015 will mean strong rally.
2- Sustaining below 5855 will mean tesing of following ranges:-
a- 5785-5820
b- 5745-5775
3- Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385

1-Bollinger Band Chart:-

2-Symmetrical Triangle Formation Chart:-

3-Flat Averags Chart:-

4- Last 3 days Intraday Chart:-

Analysis of last 3 sessions range bound move to decide next moves

Break out implications of last 3 sessions range(5855-5956) has been discussed above and its dissection is as follows to decide break out direction:-

1- 1st day-Nifty traded within 5880-5940 with selling at higher levels.
2- 2nd day-Nifty traded within 5870-5940 with intraday consolidation patterns.
3- 3rd day-Sentiment completely depressed due to fear of DMK withdrawing support news from Union Govt. during trading hours or in next 3 days of holidays. Last 2 range broken both sides,firstly lower to 5855 and then at higher side to 5956.
4- 3rd day intraday analysis- Firstly intraday support within 5855-5890 and then last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications.

Indian markets got support at lower levels in most depressed sentiment last Thursday and closd near day's higher levels. As last 40 minutes intraday charts are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 5956 confirmation is must for that rally about which has been mentioned above.

Conclusions

Intermediate term trend is undecided in last 20 sessions, 2 times it has turned down and also turned up 2 times. Let it find decisive direction through breaking out trend deciding following crucial levels then sustains moves toward that side:-

1- Sustaining above 6015 will be up trend confirmation.
2- sustaining below 5690 will be down trend confirmation.

Last Thursday sharp up moves in most depressed sentiment is strong indication of decisive up moves and if Nifty sustains above 5956 in the begining of week then that will be correction completion confirmation. Indian markets are riped for up moves after last Thursday sharp surge and until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.

Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956 and enjoy whole weeek move towards that side.

Trading Levels for 20-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6087
R2 6022
R1 5987
AVG 5920
S1 5885
S2 58120
S3 5785

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6126
R2 6050
R1 6007
AVG 5936
S1 5895
S2 5822
S3 5770

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 20-12-10

R3 11990
R2 11774
R1 11620
AVG 11401
S1 11254
S2 11030
S3 10883

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (20 Dec to 24 Dec 2010)

R3 6165
R2 6062
R1 6005
AVG 5900
S1 5845
S2 5742
S3 5685

Post-Open Outlook(16-12-2010)

Positive opening despite weaker global cues on expected lines because yesterday intraday charts consolidation patterns and RBI Credit policy will give final cues but selling on the back of positive credit policy can not be ruled out today. Cautious approach required because weakness expected in US markets in coming sessions.

Trading Levels for 16-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 16-12-10

R3 6010
R2 5979
R1 5935
AVG 5900
S1 5855
S2 5824
S3 5782

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 16-12-10

R3 6025
R2 5988
R1 5944
AVG 5907
S1 5861
S2 5826
S3 5777

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 16-12-10

R3 11934
R2 11775
R1 11494
AVG 11336
S1 11058
S2 10896
S3 10614

Pre-Open Market Outlook(16-12-2010)

Down moves were expected yesterday therefore such moves were projected and seen also but intraday charts showed consolidations therefore following lines were told before 02:00 pm yesterday:-

1- intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today
2- intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today

As intraday patterns showed consolidation within 5870-5940 yesterday therefore sustaining below is must for any down move confirmation and if Nifty does not sustain below 5870 and cross 5940 then fresh strong up moves will be seen. Selling in previous sessions and buying yesterday are suggesting to get confirmations from break out of 5870-5940.

Last 14 sessions EOD chart is showing symmetrical triangle and it is continuation pattern. Break out of this pattern should be watched for next strong and decisive move confirmations.

1- Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation Pattern) Chart:-

Following news will also be crucial therefore should be kept in mind.

1- Credit policy today and any type of rates hike not expected. Banks facing liquidity problem and CRR cut can not be ruled out today after decline of inflation and encouraging IIP,GDP data.

2- DMK may withdraw support after CBI raids but in that situation there will be no danger to Union Govt because required 9 MPs support will be easily managed(AIADMK & SP) by Congress and no impact on Govt stability will be seen. As Stock markets moves on sentiments therefore in this situation panic selling and bottom possibility can not be ruled out therefore caution required. If supports withdrawl news comes during trading hours then it may cause panic therefore trading long positions should be held with stop loss in system. It is also very much expected that market will bounce back after any panic because Govt will survive finally and supports arrangements would have been done before CBI raids. As it may happen therefore should be kept in mind.

Mixed intraday formations in last 2 sessions and above mentioned news flow will also influence market today therefore today intraday formations will tell first for preperation of next moves and sustaing beyond after break out(5870-5940) will give next moves confirmations. Above shown Symmetrical Triangle break out will confirm next big move.

Today may be high volatile day therefore cautious approach required.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(15-12-2010)

Most Asian markets closed flat to negative,European markets also opened in Red today and Indian markets are also trading weak within 5880-5940. Although Indian market is weak since morning today but intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today therefore down movw confirmation point is dipping below 5880. As intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today therefore moving above 5940 will be fresh up move confirmation.

I posted my bearish view in Pre-Open Outlook for today and Indian markets are trading in Red since opening today but intraday patterns are suggesting above mentioned conclusions therefore final view will be formed according to break out of today trading range(5880-5940) because intraday trading patterns did not showed follow up selling today.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(15-12-2010)

Selling seen today between 5930-5940 also.

Mid-Session Outlook(15-12-2010)

Minor intraday support seen between 5900-5915.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-12-2010)

Decline in inflations triggered up move and positive markets seen yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations and intraday patterns suggesting distribution also. Next resistance range is 5970-6015 and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then decisive rally will not be seen.

Nifty rallied 233 points in last 3 sessions with intraday selling formations and expected that Nifty will not sustain above 6015 in on going rally despite closing near day's high yesterday. Opening will depend on global cues today but finally down moves toward last 3 sessions lows expected in the coming sessions and fresh down moves will be seen either from today or tomorrow.

Trading Levels for 15-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6033
R2 5995
R1 5967
AVG 5929
S1 5905
S2 5865
S3 5838

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6049
R2 6008
R1 5985
AVG 5945
S1 5922
S2 5880
S3 5857

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 11915
R2 11796
R1 11707
AVG 11589
S1 11505
S2 11385
S3 11296

Mid-Session Outlook(14-12-2010)

Inflation for Nov 2010 decreased from 8.58 to 7.48(MoM) and triggered up move in Indian markets through breaking out 5914 by force. Testing of next resistance range(5970-6015) is expected now and  closing above 5914 is must tody because break out is on the back of good news.

Post-Open Outlook(14-12-2010)

Positive opening and then slipping to 5900 seen in early trades. Nifty trading above 5900 since opening today and sustaining above or below it will be first indication of next move.

Rising Wedge(Selling Pattern) within 5874-5914 seen in last 1 hour yesterday and breaking down of this range will be first strong indication of next move.