Just Watch 25 Sessions Trading Range for Big Decisive Moves Confirmations 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(30-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 100 Points surge after RBI Credit policy
2- 234 Points intraday rally
3- 100 Points slipping in last hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 7692-7926

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

When Dow Jones was trading 300 points down after more than 2% negative closing of all European markets and Indian markets closing near the lower levels of the after loosing 73 points on 28-09-2015 then we were not Bearish and told following lines in "RBI Credit policy is last Hope of Bulls amid All Global Markets Crashing":-

1- Certainly higher levels complete selling was not seen and some consolidation was also seen in first 5 hours sideways trading 
2- sustaining below first 5 hours trading range(7832-7890) is must for decisive down moves below today lowest(7787)
3- next trend will be decided according to RBI Credit policy announcements after 11:00 AM which is last hope of Bulls

Following lines were told at on 27-09-2015 in "Next Trend after RBI Credit Policy will get confirmations from 23 Sessions Range":-

1- 50 BPS cut is less expected and its announcement will mean immediate forceful up moves but trend reversal will be considered only after sustaining above 23 sessions trading range highest(8092)
2- Correction is very much in continuation towards its technical targets at 7104/6761 but importance of valid break out of last 23 sessions like long sideways range also can not be ignored because such long time ranges have trend reversal strength also. 
3- Certainly last 23 sessions trading range has power to form big trend therefore firstly watch its valid break out in next RBI Credit Policy week for confirmations.

As following reasons still therefore Nifty will be understood range bound within last 25 Sessions range:- 

1- Today rally was only RBI Credit Policy news generated and not after intraday complete consolidation
2- Technical positions reverses also during today like news led intraday volatility 

Last 25 sessions sideways trading between 7540-8092 with higher levels selling and lower levels consolidations and Correction is on towards its technical targets at 7104/6761 but 25 sessions like long sideways range has trend reversal strength also therefore finally valid break out of mentioned 25 sessions range should be watched for next big decisive moves confirmations. 

RBI Credit policy is last Hope of Bulls amid All Global Markets Crashing 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(29-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 7832-7854
2- Consolidation Patterns between 7843-7862
3- Selling Patterns between 7866-7880
4- Selling Patterns between 7870-7890
5- 5 Hours Mixed Patterns between 7832-7890
6- Sudden fall with 100 points sharp fall in Dow's Futures and in all fast slipping of all European markets
7- Whole day actual trading between 7787-7890

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As first 5 hours trading was with both consolidation and selling therefore Mixed Patterns formations will be understood at higher levels of the day today. Although closing near the lower levels of the day after slipping from higher levels but after 100 points sudden sharp down moves in Dow's Futures and fast slipping of all the European markets.

Certainly higher levels complete selling was not seen and some consolidation was also seen in first 5 hours sideways trading therefore sustaining below first 5 hours trading range(7832-7890) is must for decisive down moves below today lowest(7787)

As Dow Jones is now trading 300 points down after more than 2% negative closing of all European markets therefore all the Asian markets may trade in deep Red on 29-09-2015 and resultant Indian markets will also open gap down but next trend will be decided according to RBI Credit policy announcements after 11:00 AM which is last hope of Bulls otherwise technically Nifty is well prepared to move towards 7104/6761 after crashing of all the Global markets.

Next Trend after RBI Credit Policy will get confirmations from 23 Sessions Range 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 28 to Oct 01,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Aug 24 to Sep 24,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 23 Sessions intraday charts

1- 165 Points gap down opening on 24-08-2015
2- 23 Sessions actual trading between 7540-8092 from 24-08-2015 to 24-09-2015 with higher levels selling and lower levels consolidations

Conclusions from 23 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Last 23 Sessions sideways market between 7540-8092 after huge 165 points gap (8060-5225) down opening on 24-08-2015 with higher levels selling and lower levels consolidations and last Friday closing at almost middle of this range. As both sufficiently good selling at higher levels and equally good consolidations at lower levels also therefore market require some more technical positions formations for next decisive moves beyond this range. 

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade next 2/3 sessions between 7540-8092 and prepare for next big trend within this range because valid break of this 23 Sessions trading range will certainly produce blasting moves beyond this range.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(24-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 7804-7833(Immediate Supports)
2- Consolidation Patterns formations in last hours between 7864-7894
3- Whole day actual trading between 7804-7894

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As up moves after lower levels consolidations and follow up consolidation patterns formations also at higher levels of the day therefore firstly some up moves are expected in the beginning of next week. 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As detailed analysis of EOD charts have already been updated in previous weeks Weekly analysis and no material changes in previous week therefore not being posted in this week but will be considered for drawing final conclusions. Just click following previous Weekly analysis topics links for EOD charts ready references:- 

1- Just watch 7691 for on fresh Down Moves beginning towards 7104/6761(Sep 21 to Sep 24,2015) 
2- Finally correction continuation towards 7104/6761(Sep 14 to Sep 18,2015)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Long Term Trend is down
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 7540-8092
3- Short Term Trend is sideways

RBI Credit Policy will be announced on 29-09-2015 and Nifty will remain volatile till then but following decisive moves will be seen after following changes in rates:-

1- 25 BPS cut is very much expected but priced in and finally down moves will be seen after initial volatility.
2- 50 BPS cut is less expected and its announcement will mean immediate forceful up moves but trend reversal will be considered only after sustaining above 23 sessions trading range highest(8092)

Expected that Nifty will firstly prepare next Monday for post Credit Policy trend but follow up consolidation is must after last Friday consolidation for next decisive moves above 8092 because good selling below it was also seen in last 23 sessions.

Correction is very much in continuation towards its technical targets at 7104/6761 but importance of valid break out of last 23 sessions like long sideways range also can not be ignored because such long time ranges have trend reversal strength also. 

Certainly last 23 sessions trading range has power to form big trend therefore firstly watch its valid break out in next RBI Credit Policy week for confirmations.

Correction Continuation Possibilities below 7691

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market 

Outlook(24-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves in Bearish Broadening Rising Channel
2- Whole day actual trading between 7724-7882

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow Futures was more than 150 points down and all the Asian markets were in deep Red therefore gap down opening in Indian markets but whole day up moves in lines with up moves in Dow Futures which recovered 200 points from lower levels and strong trading European markets.

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "Finally correction continuation amid High Volatility":-

Expected that Nifty will remain volatile between 7691-8055 up to RBI Credit Policy and finally correction will remain continued because no confirmation of its completion yet.

Nifty traded within above mentioned range between 7724-7882 today and expected that Nifty will trade within mentioned range up to RBI Credit Policy as well as correction continuation possibilities are still alive below 7691 because today whole day up moves were in Bearish Broadening Rising Channel but coming couple of sessions may be highly volatile despite rates cutting expectations in RBI Credit Policy and today closing near the higher levels of the day.

Finally correction continuation amid High Volatility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(23-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 7971-8021
2- Sharp down moves after Dow Jones Futures's huge fall
3- Whole day actual trading between 7788-8021

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although first 4 hours trading with mixed patterns formations between 7971-8021 but sharp down moves beginning and  closing near the lower levels of the day after more than fall 200 points sudden huge fall in Dow Jones Futures and more than 2% sharp slipping of all European markets.

Although Long Term Trend is down and today down moves have given Bearish markets continuation confirmations but coming sessions will be volatile due to rates cut expectations in RBI Credit Policy and Derivative expiry.

Expected that Nifty will remain volatile between 7691-8055 up to RBI Credit Policy and finally correction will remain continued because no confirmation of its completion yet.

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market  
Outlook(22-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with consolidations
2- Up moves with sufficient corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 7909-7987

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the US and European markets closed more than 1% down last Friday and all the Asian markets were also trading in deep Red today morning therefore Indian markets traded whole day in negative zone after Gap down opening. Although such high depressed sentiments but Indian markets moved up whole day and also closed flat near the higher levels of the day. As today up moves were with intraday consolidations and sufficient corrections therefore some up moves can not be ruled out tomorrow and until fresh selling will not develop till then Nifty will not slip below today lowest. 

Last 2 sessions trading between 7909-8055 with lower levels today consolidation and higher levels good selling last Friday therefore Nifty will firstly traded and prepare for next decisive moves within this range. As RBI Credit Policy on 29th Sep therefore Nifty will firstly prepare for post policy decisive moves within this range(7909-8055) and finally valid break out of this range will be strong indication of next trend after Credit Policy announcements.

Although all the Global markets slipped fast in last 2 sessions after FOMC meet last Thursday but Indian markets have out performed and closed flat today after good Up moves last Friday. Certainly Indian markets have shown some strength but good selling was also seen between 8023-8055 last Friday also therefore view will be cautious and firstly intraday trading patterns formation will be watched tomorrow between 7909-8055 and then final conclusions will be updated accordingly because Our Policy is:- "No gossiping never guessing and whatsoever market suggest,only that is always updated"

Just watch 7691 for on fresh Down Moves beginning towards 7104/6761 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 21 to Sep 24,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015) 
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formation at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 
10- Pull back rally continuation with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

16 Months long 4000 Points strong rally from 28-08-2013 to 04-03-2015 between 5118.85-9119.20 with many times new life times high formation and after that its 'ABC' correction continuation but no confirmation of its completion yet and now Pull back rally continuation from  7539.50 with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015.

Waves structure of on going 'ABC' correction and Pull Back Rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-A(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2 of Wave-A(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3 of Wave-A(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4 of Wave-A(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5 of corrective Wave-A completion(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
7- Wave-B completion and corrective Wave-C beginning(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
8- Wave-1 of Wave-C(7667.25 on 25-08-2015)
9- Wave-2 of Wave-C(8091.80 on 28-08-2015)
10- Wave-3 of Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
11- Pull back rally continuation with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Corrective Wave-3 of Wave-C is on with recent bottom formations at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 but after that Pull back rally beginning in previous weeks which is now in continuation with recent top formation at 8055 on 18-09-2015 and no confirmation of its completion yet.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(18-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8023-8055(Immediate Resistances)
2- Whole day actual trading between 7956-8055

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As good selling at the higher levels of the day between 8023-8055 on the back of FOMC decision last Thursday therefore this range will be immediate resistance and until Nifty will not sustain above 8055 after complete consolidation till then next up moves above it will not be considered. 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Long Term Trend is down
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 7539-8091
3- Short Term Trend is up

Detailed analysis of on going correction with immediate target at 7104.30 with Fibonacci Retracement levels have been updated in following topic on 06-09-2015 just click following topic link and go through:-

Next Target of Nifty at 7104.30

10 months huge Bearish Head and Shoulders pattern formations and its Neck line was broken down and last 9 sessions closing was below it also therefore target according to this at 6761 with calculations has already been updated in following topic on 13-09-2015,just click following topic link and go through:- 

Finally correction continuation towards 7104/6761

Following 3 selling ranges(resistances) were updated on 29-08-2015 in "Next Trend Confirmations through Crucial Levels amid Global Cues led Huge Volatility"

1- 7897-7930
2- 7995-8010
3- 8032-8055

Nifty retraced exactly from 8055 last Friday after FOMC news led higher levels good selling and Bearish Gravestone Doji candle formation was also seen on EOD chart therefore it is a strong signal of on going Pull Back Rally completion and fresh down moves beginning. 

As some supports above 7540 therefore follow up complete selling is must for next down moves and if it develops in the beginning of next week then decisive down moves will be seen towards the lowest point(7540) of on going correction and possibility of slipping below it also can not be ruled out because next targets of on going correction are at 7104 and 6761.

Rising Channel formations from 09-09-2015 to 16-09-2015 between 7691-7914 and expected that Nifty will firstly trade within this range as well as prepare for next big moves. As finally valid break out of this range will decide the fate of on going Pull Back Rally and on going correction therefore should be firstly watched in next week for confirmations. As above mentioned target of on going correction has not been achieved yet therefore expected that follow up selling will develop and finally Nifty will slip below 7691 as well as fresh down moves will be seen towards 7104/6761 but for precautions firstly watch 7961 for confirmations. 

Pre-FOMC Outlook on the basis of intraday charts patterns formations

As intraday charts of all the Asian and European markets have shown clear selling patterns formations today therefore expected that fresh down moves will be seen in Global Stock Markets tomorrow despite whatsoever FOMC announcements at 11:30 PM today.

गणेश चतुर्थी और हमारे सर्वाधिक आदरणीय  एवम महानतम प्रघान मंत्री मोदी जी के जन्म दिन की  आप सभी को बहुत सारी हार्दिक बधाइयाँ

Wishing you all congratulations by heart on Ganesh Chaturthi and Birth day of our most Respectable the Greatest Prime Minister Modi ji.

Just watch valid break out of Rising Channel for next trend confirmation after FOMC meet

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-09-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Sep 09 to Sep 16,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 6 Sessions intraday charts

1- Rising Channel formations
2- Lower levels buying within channel
3- Higher levels selling within channel

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Sep-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Support between 7854-7872
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Selling between 7900-7913
5- Whole day actual trading between 7854-7913

Conclusions from intra day charts analysis

Last 6 sessions trading within Rising Channel with lower levels buying and higher levels selling therefore view will not be Bullish despite blasting global markets rally today and now DOW Jones trading more than 100 points up on less possibility of Interest rates hike by FOMC on 17-09-2015. Usually Rising Channels are understood Bearish formation and until Nifty will not sustain above upper Rising line till then view will not be Bullish.

As some higher levels selling was also seen after lower levels supports today therefore if Nifty fails to sustain above today highest then sharp fall will be seen and confirmation will be valid break down of lower Rising line of Rising Channel.

If no rates hike tomorrow then high volatility after strong opening will be seen and sharp fall is confirm in the situation of rates hike and just watch valid break out Rising Channel for next trend confirmation after FOMC meet but our view is not Bullish despite Global markets strong rally today.