Crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(07-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (06-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Almost 4 hours sideways trading with mixed Patterns between 8574-8600 
2- Last more than 2 hours up moves in Bearish Rising Channel 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8574-8667

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following resistances were updated 04-04-2015 in "Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time":-

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

Importance of 8521-8627 was told in almost all the Outlooks of last 1 week and Nifty closed above it today but as such consolidation patterns were not seen at lower levels and last more than 2 hours up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel as well as today closing is within above mentioned 1st resistance range therefore firstly sustaining beyond following levels should be watched tomorrow for next trend confirmations;- 

1- Forceful break out or sustaining above 8825 will mean clearing 2 resistances and fresh rally after correction completion. 
2- Forceful break down or sustaining below 8627 will mean fresh down moves after Pull Back Rally completion in 1st Resistance range.

As RBI Credit Policy tomorrow therefore Indian Markets may be highly volatile also and finally above crucial levels will decide Nifty response to Credit Policy.

Pre-open Outlook(06-04-2015)

As US jobs report(March) came in much weaker than expected therefore U.S. stock and index futures declined sharply on Friday:- 

1- Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 165 points(-0.93%)  
2- S&P-500 futures fell 19.75 points(0.96%)
3- Nasdaq-100 futures lost 43.75 points(-1.03%)  

In long run it is positive news because Fed hike seems remote in June FOMC meet after this report but Asian markets may react negative and initial weakness possibility can not be ruled out next Monday.

Positive Surprise by RBI on 7th Apr will mean Strong Rally this time

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 06 to Apr 10,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 20 to Apr 01,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 9 Sessions intraday charts

1- 4 Sessions actual trading within 8521-8627 between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015
2- 4 Sessions range broken down on 26/03/2015 after the news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen.
3- 5 Sessions Volatility with both higher levels selling and equally good lower levels supports
4- Weekly closing at 8586.25 on 01-04-2015 which is between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) 
5- 9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627 

Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Following Weekly Analysis Topic of previous week was updated on 28-03-2015

8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally

Pull Back Rally expectations was told and 334 Points Pull Back rally was seen in previous week as well as weekly closing of Nifty was at 8586.25 which if within mentioned range(8521-8627) 

Although 4 Sessions actual trading range(8521-8627) was with good consolidation and minor selling but range broken down on 26/03/2015 after negative news of Saudi Arabia air strikes in Yemen therefore complete selling was required for sustaining below 8521. As on the contrary good lower levels consolidations and higher levels follow up consolidation was also seen in the next 5 Volatile Sessions after 26/03/2015 therefore not sustaining below 8521 and Weekly closing at 8586.25 between 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) and this range has become most crucial for deciding next trend.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 8464-8499 
2- Sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020"
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8517-8542 
4- Up moves in last hour between 8542-8603
5- Whole day actual trading between 8464-8603

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

First 3 hours negative zone trading with mixed patterns formations but sudden jump after the announcement of "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020". As Follow up consolidation between 8517-8542 after sudden jump and last hour up moves between 8464-8603 which is within mentioned 4 Sessions range(8521-8627) therefore emergence of fresh up moves expectations in the beginning of next week.   

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015
8- 334 Points Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015

Waves structure of Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Apr-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7961.35 on 17-12-2014(Wave-5 beginning after Wave-4 completion)
2- Sub Wave-1(8445.60 on 05-01-2015)
3- Sub Wave-2(8065.45 on 07-01-2015)
4- Sub Wave-3(8996.60 on 30-01-2015)
5- Sub Wave-4(8470.50 on 10-02-2015)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning
7- Wave-A(8612 on 16-03-2015)
8- Wave-B(8788.20 on 18-03-2015)
9- Wave-C(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
10- Pull Back rally with recent top formation at 8603.40 on 01-04-2015

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Long Term Trend is up,Intermediate and Short Term Trends are down. The rally which started at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after its 5th Wave completion. Its 5th Wave was extended and its 5th Wave also completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction begun which completed at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015. Calculation of 'ABC' correction is as follows:-

9119.20(Wave-A top)
8612.00(Wave-A bottom)
---------
 507.20(Wave-A corrected)
---------------------------------
8788.20(Wave-C top)
8269.15(Wave-C bottom)
---------
 519.05(Wave-C corrected)
---------

Wave-C corrected almost same points as Wave-A corrected therefore confirmation of this 'ABC' wave completion. 

As confirmation of 5th Wave completion of that impulsive Wave-1 which started from 5118.85 on 28-08-2013 therefore until Nifty will not sustain above all time high(9119.20) till then correction possibility of whole this 4000.35 points rally can not be ruled out which started from 5118.85 and completed at 9119.20. 

Certainly Pull Back Rally continuation and finally sustaining beyond 8269-9119 will decide the fate of on going correction. Supports and resistances within this range are as follows:-  

Supports:-

1- 8517-8542
2- 8464-8499
3- 8382-8403
4- 8337-8356
5- 8269-8331

Resistances:-

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

9 Sessions actual trading between 8269-8627 and previous week closing within it at 8586.25 after lower lower levels good consolidations in last 4 sessions. As selling patterns have not developed yet therefore Pull Back Rally continuation is expected in the beginning of next week and once sustaining above 9 Sessions highest(8627) will mean strong rally towards above mentioned resistances.

As multiple supports and resistances are between 8269-9119 therefore expected that Nifty will remain sideways within this range in the coming couple of weeks and prepare for next big moves. Finally sustaining it beyond should be watched for next Big following trend:-  

1- Sustaining above 9119 will mean fresh strong rally after less than 23.6% correction completion at 8269. 
2- Sustaining below 8269 will mean correction continuation towards following retracement levels:-

23.6%- 8174
27.0%- 8038
38.2%- 7590
50.0%- 7118
61.8%- 6646
70.7%- 6290
76.4%- 6062
78.6%- 5974
88.6%- 5574

Most positive news of Land acquisition ordinance re-promulgation on 3rd Apr and RBI Credit Policy on 7th Apr,if positive surprise by Raghuram Rajan then strong rally will be seen because market is well prepared for it this time after good consolidation at lower levels in last 4 sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(01-04-2015)

First 3 hours negative zone trading but sudden jump after the announcement of market friendly "Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020" and testing of immediate resistance range(8521-8550). Although good selling within this range yesterday but Foreign Trade Policy 2015-2020 is also equally good therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for the confirmations actual impact / reactions of Policy on Indian Stock Markets.

Pre-open Outlook(01-04-2015)

Good consolidation between 8269-8356 on 27-03-2015 and equally good selling between  8521-8550 on 31-03-2015 therefore Nifty will remain sideways between 8269-8550 in the coming 2/3 sessions as well as will prepare for next decisive moves within this range. 

Certainly correction continuation is expected in the coming sessions but up to 8269 and finally sustaining it beyond should be watched for correction continuation / completion confirmations.

Correction Continuation after Follow up Good Selling

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(01-04-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours selling between 8521-8550(Immediate Resistance)
2- 90 Points sharp fall in 20 minutes
3- Whole day actual trading between 8454-8550

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told on 30-03-2015 in 8521-8627 is next trend decider:-

1- Expected that Nifty will trade between above mentioned range(8521-8627) and will prepare for next decisive moves
2- As this range is next trend decider therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations in the coming sessions

Following conclusive line was told on 28-03-2015 in 8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally:-

Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.

As was told in the Outlooks of last 2 sessions 100%  same happened:-

1- Strong Pull Back Rally was seen and Nifty closed 150 points up on 30-03-2015. 
2- Nifty traded between above mentioned range(8521-8627) today and traded between 8521-8550. 

Firstly more than 4 hours selling between 8521-8550 and after that sharp 90 Points fall in 20 minutes today therefore breaking down confirmation of 8521-8627. Correction is on and its continuation confirmation today after follow up selling between 8521-8550 and until Nifty will not sustain above it after follow up consolidation till then next up moves will not be considered.

Although flat closing today but follow up good selling between 8521-8627 today therefore correction continuation is expected in the coming sessions.

8521-8627 is next trend decider

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(31-03-2015)

Following line with detailed analysis was told on 28-03-2015 in 8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally:-

Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.

As was told 100% same happened and strong Pull Back Rally was seen as well as Nifty closed 150 points up today.

Expected that Nifty will trade between above mentioned range(8521-8627) and will prepare for next decisive moves. As this range is next trend decider therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for next trend confirmations in the coming sessions.

(As extremely busy today therefore detailed analysis is not being updated)

8521-8627 Will decide the fate of expected Pull Back rally

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 30 to Apr 01,2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation Patterns between 8337-8356
2- Consolidation between 8269-8331(Immediate Supports)
3- Consolidation Patterns between 8334-8346
4- Whole day actual trading between 8269-8392

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing but whole day good consolidation therefore Pull Back Rally possibility in the beginning of next week

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and Wave-5 started)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015)
7- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8269.15 on 27-03-2015

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Following most positive news flow in March Derivative series:- 

1- Market Friendly Union Budget on 28-02-2015.
2- RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015.  
3- Insurance Laws Amendment Bill, 2015 was passed by the Rajya Sabha on 13-03-2015.
4- Positive news of rates hike delaying in FOMC on 18-03-2015 night.

Surprising most encouraging news of RBI rates cut on 04-03-2015 and new life time high formation also same day but that correction beginning which remain continued till the last day on March Derivative series. 

Nifty traded 4 sessions between 20/03/2015-25/03/2015 within 8521-8627 with intraday consolidation patterns but this range was forcefully broken down on 26/03/2015 because all the Global markets were most depressed due to following negative news:-

1- Saudi Arabia launches air strikes in Yemen.
2- Greece Crisis enhancement news because Greece cash crisis takes turn for worse.

Indian markets also reacted negative and Nifty closed 209 points down on 26/03/2015 as well as gave Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation after slipping below 8470.50. As above mentioned 4 sessions trading was with consolidation patterns and this range was broken down due to negative news therefore if follow up consolidation develops in next week after intraday consolidation on 27-03-2015 then sustaining above 8627 will give strong indication of correction completion.

As selling developed after above mentioned encouraging and positive news and following resistances have developed at higher levels therefore follow up consolidation is also required rally continuation:- 

1- 8738-8788
2- 8805-8825
3- 8920-8943
4- 9023-9096

At present Short and Intermediate term trends are down and Long Term Trend is still up,its decider 200-Day EMA is today at 8111. Wave-5 started from 7961.35 and it is just below 8111 therefore these 2 levels become most crucial. Correction is on and no confirmation of its completion yet as well as some more down moves possibilities can not be ruled out therefore sustaining beyond 8111 / 7961.35 sould be watched in the coming week / weeks for deciding the fate of Long Term Trend. It should be kept in mind that Wave-1 started from  5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its 5th Wave completion confirmation on 26/03/2015,if Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8111) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace that rally which started from  5118.85.

As Oscillators are oversold and good intraday consolidation on 27/03/2015 therefore Pull Back rally in expected in the beginning of next week but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and if it happens near about following retracement levels that will be first strong signal of correction completion:-  

1- 0.707%- 8300(Retraced and closing above it on 27/03/2015 )
2- 0.764%- 8234
3- 0.786%- 8208
4- 0.886%- 8093

Pull Back rally is expected in the beginning of next week and finally sustaining beyond 8521-8627 will decide its length and fate.

Correction confirmation and 8109/7961 will decide Long Term Trend

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(27-03-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Mar-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8436-8499
2- Sharp down in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 9326-8499

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following weekly analysis topic was posted on 22-03-2015:-

Bulls & Bears Semi Final between 8470.50-8640 in Next Week

As intraday charts of last 4 sessions were showing consolidation patterns therefore it was expected that Impulsive Sub Wave-1 will remain continued and finally fresh rally will start after follow up consolidation today despite weakness in US and European markets yesterday but  I proved wrong because Sentiment turned most depressed today morning because US markets closed near the lowest of the day yesterday after last hour sharp down. Resultant  gap down opening of Indian markets was seen and Impulsive Sub Wave-1 failing confirmation in first minute today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50. As Dow's Futures slipped more than 160 points and European markets also slipped after opening therefore no respite for Indian markets and whole day crashing like situation was seen today.

Short Term Trend was already down and Intermediate term trend turning down confirmation today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50 and it means correction continuation confirmation from 3 weeks to 3 months.

Wave-5 started from 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and its completion confirmation at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015(on RBI Rates cut day) therefore Nifty will firstly correct that rally which started from 7961.35. Long Term Trend is still up and its decider 200 Day EMA is today at 8109. As 7961.35 is just above 8109 therefore finally sustaining beyond 8109 / 7961.35 will decide the fate of Long Term Trend. 

Wave-1 started from  5118.85 on 28-08-2013 and its Wave-5 completion confirmation today. If Nifty sustains below Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(8109) and bottom of Wave-5(7961.35) then Nifty will retrace whole that rally which started from  5118.85 and these levels should be watched in the coming weeks for Long Term Trend confirmations.

As Oscillators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally may be seen any day after 1/2 sessions lower levels consolidation but complete consolidation is required on Daily and Weekly charts for correction completion and following retracement levels of Wave-5 should be firstly watched in the coming 1/2 sessions for Pull Back rally:-  

[0.618] 8,403.3600(Retraced today but Most crucial level)
[0.707] 8,300.2900
[0.764] 8,234.2900
[0.786] 8,208.8100
[0.886] 8,093.0100

Mid-session Outlook(26-03-2015)

Most positive news flow in March Derivative series but correction beginning and Bullish Waves structure failed on the expiry day of settlement today after Nifty slipping below 8470.50. Certainly I proved wrong and as per Elliot Waves Theory Waves should be recounted in such situations. Whole Waves structure will be understood on long Charts and then will be updated accordingly.